How Axel Arigato Used Incrementality Testing to Refine Their Growth Strategy

Case: Axel Arigato

Axel Arigato

Axel Arigato is a contemporary fashion and sneaker brand born at the intersection of streetwear, music, and culture. Known for its minimalist design aesthetic and community-driven ethos, the brand has rapidly grown into a global name with a loyal following across Europe, the U.S., and Asia.

As growth accelerated, Axel Arigato's team wanted to ensure that scaling their digital investments would translate into sustainable, profitable growth—not just higher ad spend. That's when they turned to Dema to help measure and optimize the true incremental impact of their marketing channels.

Employees

Headquarters

Gothenburg, Sweden

Founded

2014

The Challenge

Axel Arigato's performance marketing team had already built efficient acquisition funnels, but scaling further posed a key challenge: increasing spend typically lowers ROAS, and it's not always clear when more budget actually adds value—or just drives cannibalization. They wanted data-driven clarity on three fronts:

Meta scaling potential

Would higher budgets drive new incremental conversions or just higher costs?

Google scaling efficiency

Could Google's ecosystem absorb more investment profitably?

Branded search incrementality

Was branded search spend as effective as it looked in-platform?

The Solution

Scaling Meta Spend

Meta Spend vs Revenue

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Spend

Revenue

We increased Meta budgets by 33%, lowering the expected ROAS target.

A two-cell scaling test was designed to isolate the incremental effect of the extra spend—one group received the increased budget (treatment), while the other remained steady (control).

Result

Despite the spend increase, there was no significant incremental lift. The additional budget delivered little new value, indicating overspend and diminishing returns on Meta at current saturation levels.

Scaling Google Spend

Google Scaling Test Results

33%

100%

Control

133%

+33%

Treatment

Using the same two-cell test design, we increased Google Ads budgets by 33% to evaluate incremental performance across PMAX campaigns.

Scaling Google produced strong incremental returns, with an incremental epROAS exceeding 100%—meaning every additional dollar invested generated more than a dollar in incremental profit. In fact, the incremental spend delivered an even higher ROAS than what Google reported in-platform.

Result

In contrast to Meta, Google proved capable of scaling profitably within the tested range.

Evaluating Branded Search

Branded Search: Google reported vs Incremental ROAS

Google reported

Incremental

Axel Arigato also questioned the efficiency of their branded search campaigns.

While platform-reported ROAS looked exceptionally high, the brand operates as a wholesaler—where multiple partners and retailers also bid on their terms.

Result

Incrementality testing revealed that branded search's true incremental ROAS was roughly 9× lower than the in-platform report suggested. Even so, its effective profit ROAS (epROAS) remained well above 100%, confirming that despite over-attribution, branded search was still a highly profitable investment.

The Impact

Through these experiments, Axel Arigato gained a clearer understanding of where their marketing spend truly drives profit—and where it doesn't.